GB Packers -3.5 -120
Let’s ease into the picks. Despite currently holding the second spot in the North, the Packers are perennially in the hunt to represent the NFC at the Super Bowl, and 2020, while different in almost every other way, seems to be staying the course in this regard.
After being embarrassed against the Bucs in what some dubbed “the battle of the GOAT’s” look for Aaron Rogers to get back on track against a Houston Defence who allows 246.5 passing yards per game, good enough for the 20th rank in opponent passing yards per game. As for the ground game, it looks like RB1 Aaron Jones will be playing this week and has a very favourable matchup to look forward to. Despite having JJ Watt on the other side of the ball, the Texans are a league-worst 32nd in opponent rushing yards per game allowing an average of 177.5 yards/game. Look for the cheeseheads to get back to their winning ways against the struggling 1-5 Texans. Lay the number!
Cam Newton anytime scorer: +125
This pick is operating on the assumption that Cam Newton and Bill Belichick will find their way into the Red Zone on at least one occasion in this game.
The Pats are playing a stingy defence in the 49ers, no doubt, but Cam Newton has shown this 2020 season that he is still a force to be reckoned with when the goal line is in sight. Newton currently ranks 14th in the league in Red Zone production and has scored five times when he leads the Patriots there. The 49ers’ defensive line took a huge shot losing Nick Bosa earlier this month and I believe that Cam is crafty and mobile enough to find his way into the endzone against the best of them. The man loves to score too much to bet against it.
Broncos/Chiefs - o44 -110
It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs scoring at the best of times, but with a total as low as 44 points with the weapons they have and playing a capable Broncos team who are getting Noah Fant and KJ Hamler back and have Drew Lock with a game under his belt since his injury, 44 points just feels a bit too low.
Kansas City has averaged 29.5 points per game so far this season and cruised to a sizeable win over the Bills last week in a rainy Monday afternoon game which should bring with it some extra confidence going to Mile High Stadium. In case the Chiefs needed other ways to score, Le’Veon Bell is joining this high powered offence and provides a wicked one-two punch with CEH in the backfield. This will also be the first game since the opening week that Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay have been activated to play so we should see a spark from the Denver backfield. So far this season the Chiefs and Broncos have hit the under in 60% of their games which I believe is driving this total down and provides an opportunity for this game to cover the number with ease.
Steelers/Titans - o4.5 sacks +110
Not every day you're advised to gamble on sacks, is it? Love this pick in what should be a hard-nosed game between two of the league’s finest. So far this season the Steelers D-line has been a sack machine with 24 recorded in just 5 games.
Wait a second *grabs calculator* that’s an average of 4.8 sacks a game. Now to be fair, the Steelers have not exactly faced stellar O-lines thus far and are slated to play a typically tough Titan’s front, however, weakened by the loss of LT Taylor Lewan to an ACL tear last week. Look for Bud Dupree and T.J Watt to wreak havoc on Lewan’s replacement Ty Sambrailo and get to Ryan Tannehill with the quickness. On the Titan’s side, they have only gotten 7 sacks through their first 5 games and have yet to see Jadevon Clowney record a takedown but between the Steelers’ buzzing pressure and a weakened Titans left side, look for a lot of sacks on Sunday.
Tee Higgins o59.5 receiving yards -120
As we approach the halfway point of Joe Burrow’s rookie campaign we are starting to recognize some of the tendencies of the young Bengal’s pivot. One of Burrow’s habits has seemed to be finding fellow rookie Tee Higgins and getting him the rock.
In the Bengals last three games, Higgins has had over 60 yards and is solidifying himself as a big-play stud averaging 19.25, 15.5 and 20.83 yards per reception in the last three games (JAX, BAL, IND). This week the Bengals will face a 27th ranked pass defence in the Cleveland Browns who are averaging 271.7 yards per game. This is coupled with Cleveland’s starting corner Greedy Williams being placed on the IR meaning that corner Denzel Ward will be the man this week. Cleveland’s secondary will be forced to choose where to focus its attention between Tyler Boyd, AJ Green and Higgins. This will likely see Higgins getting flashes of Ward and Terrance Mitchell, both of whom have allowed over a 98 passer rating to opposing QB’s when targeted. Not good. In the second battle of Ohio, Higgins is poised to pop.
Alvin Kamara o62.5 rushing yards -120
Feels like free cash. Alvin Kamara has been an absolute weapon for the Saints this season. He has no doubt benefited from the absence of Michael Thomas and has made the most of his opportunity.
Kamara will be facing a Carolina defence that allows an average of 121.7 rushing yards per game and will see another heavy workload with Thomas being announced as inactive for another week. The Saints have averaged 28.0 rush attempts per game and Kamara has a career average of 4.9 yards per rush attempt - if even half of the Saints rushing touches belong to him, the over is in safe hands.
Extra Point
Bears/Rams u 45.0 -110
Two top 7 defences, two bottom 15 offences. Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. Take the under. Keep it moving.
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